Mosaic has cautioned that global phosphate production could reach only around 45 million tonnes against roughly 75 million tonnes of normal demand, a shortfall of about 40%. The company frames this as a risk of outright physical unavailability of product, not merely a price effect.
Phosphate is a core input for fertiliser blends used across major crop-growing regions, so a supply gap of this scale would tighten availability for buyers in agriculture-intensive markets and could widen regional price differentials as importers compete for limited tonnes.
If the shortfall materialises, trading houses and buyers may need to secure forward commitments earlier than usual and diversify sourcing across producers and geographies to mitigate availability risk, rather than relying on spot purchases closer to application season.
Related on gidex.com: DAP supply · the fertiliser desk · the trading desk
Original note by GIDEX Group based on reporting by Fertilizer Daily. Written up by the GIDEX market desk — see how these notes are made. Not investment advice.
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