Fertilisers, energy, metals and agricultural raw materials, freight and trade policy — what moved, and what it means for cargo and counterparties. How these notes are made.
Record tanker rates from Middle East tensions are trapping heavy crude in North/South America, while Asia and Europe face heavy grade shortages.
Rail and port congestion from freight diverted to the Baltic could cut potash fertiliser supply by 1.5 million tonnes in Q4, industry estimates show.
Brazil's fertiliser imports fell 30% in September, with daily volumes at their slowest pace since 2023 as buyers face the highest prices since 2022.
OCP's H1 2026 EBITDA fell 28.5% to MAD 13.3bn as sulphur prices tripled; TSP now 35% of fertiliser exports.
Dated Brent surges past $120 even as ICE Brent futures slip to $101, signalling acute physical crude tightness and a widening futures gap.
China's top refiners suspend October fuel exports, tightening already strained global diesel, gasoline and jet fuel supplies.
Iran conflict traps a fifth of global LNG supply near Hormuz, driving European gas prices up and adding to inflation pressure on ECB policy.
Six of eight major US fertiliser prices rose in mid-September 2026; ammonia up 22% year-on-year, with most products above last year's levels.
Sulfur cost pressure is idling Brazilian phosphate capacity, deepening a supply shortage as H1 deliveries drop 5.4% and growers buy early.
EuroChem plans $2.2bn investment to lift Usolskiy potash output to 5.2m t/yr by 2029, adding to global potash supply.
China's 2026 urea export quota falls to 3.3m tonnes with FOB floors of $430-440/t, tightening global nitrogen supply into Q4.
WTO data shows fertiliser and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain near zero despite June's safe-passage agreement.