China's phosphate exports have collapsed in 2026, falling from 5.3 million tonnes in 2025 to almost nothing, according to reporting citing Argus. The drop is attributed to a sulfur squeeze, as sulfur is a key feedstock for phosphoric acid and phosphate fertiliser production, and tight availability has constrained China's export capacity.
The disappearance of Chinese supply leaves phosphate as the least affordable of the major nutrients on global markets, reinforcing tight conditions for buyers in regions reliant on Chinese tonnes, including parts of Asia, Africa and Latin America. With one of the world's largest phosphate exporters effectively absent, importers have had to seek alternative origins, supporting prices for producers elsewhere such as Morocco, the US and Saudi Arabia.
Argus reportedly expects a partial rebound of around 2 million tonnes in Chinese exports, which would still leave volumes well below 2025 levels. For fertiliser buyers and traders, this points to continued elevated phosphate prices and tight global balances persisting through at least part of 2026, with the pace of any Chinese sulfur supply recovery a key variable to watch.
Related on gidex.com: DAP supply · the fertiliser desk · buying through the desk
Original note by GIDEX Group based on reporting by Fertilizer Daily. Written up by the GIDEX market desk — see how these notes are made. Not investment advice.
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